2016 General Election Predictions!

My election prediction record is 95 percent since I started broadcasting in Virginia on January 2, 2012. Not bad!

So far, my 2016 predictions are 100 percent!  

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Last losses, from 2015: 

  • Monty Mason: He’s a beast. Period.
  • Amanda Chase: John Moss says checks vote once. 
  • Jeremy McPike: I drank the GOP Kool-aide and changed my bet at the window. Dumb. Never, ever change your bet. 

 

So here are my Election Day November 8, 2016 predictions thus far:

Disclaimer: My legendary, world renowned and highly coveted political predictions are based on the following not so scientific criteria: total hearsay, unconfirmed rumors, conspiracy theories, pure innuendo, personal insight, moles, RINO’s, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, my high-voltage tin foil hat wired directly into the mother ship (aluminum comes from Chi-coms), William at the dry cleaners, Wayne from the Virginia Zoo, my random radio show callers, pure instinct…and my secret sauce.

It all adds up to a nearly flawless track record! I’m right a whopping 95 percent of the time.

2016 Presidential Election

Trump wins.

A Gallup poll on October 26, 1980 blared out these results, two weeks before the 1980 election: Jimmy Carter 47 percent – Ronald Reagan 39 percent. You know the outcome.

Many of today’s crooked polls that are sponsored by the news media keep trying to skew the turnout models to show an inevitable Clinton victory.

This is designed to “crap out” or dispirit Trump supporters, pummeling them with bad numbers to keep them from volunteering time or money or even bothering to vote.

Even after manipulating the polling, Clinton’s lead is dwindling to next to nothing.

The next misleading media mantra will be: “Trump can’t win the electoral college!” It’s nonsense. Here’s why:

270 Electoral votes needed to win.

There are three scenarios for a Trump victory in November.

  • Scenario One: Trump wins Pennsylvania. Trump wins all the 2012 Mitt Romney states (including North Carolina, currently tied) and carries Ohio (tied), Florida (tied) and Pennsylvania (minus 4). This yields 273 electoral votes. Trump wins.
  • Scenario Two: Trump wins Virginia. Trump wins all the 2012 Mitt Romney states (including North Carolina, currently tied) and carries Ohio (tied), Florida (tied), Iowa (tied) or Nevada (tied) and Virginia. This yields 272 electoral votes. Trump wins.
  • Scenario Three: Trump Wins New Hampshire. Trump wins all the 2012 Mitt Romney states (including North Carolina, currently tied) and carries Ohio (tied), Florida (tied), Iowa (tied), Nevada (tied) New Hampshire (minus 5) and 1 of 4 CD’s in Maine (tied). This yields 270 electoral votes. Trump wins.

Naturally, if there is a Trump wave, he could also win Michigan and Wisconsin. I believe all polls understate Trump’s vote by a hard 2 percent, and in some cases as much as 3 percent. These are under the radar screen voters; those who are registered but have not voted in a decade or more. They just show up on election day, vote Trump, and go home.

2016 Richmond Mayor Race

Joe Morrissey, defying all odds, wins on the first ballot.  “Fightin’ Joe,” written off as road-kill by the so-called professional politicians and pundits ten times over, will be Richmond’s next mayor.

Here’s how he does it:

Morrissey needs to win five of Richmond’s nine precincts to win a first ballot (no runoff) victory. If no one carries at least five districts, Richmond voters choose their next mayor in a run-off between the two highest popular vote finalists.

Morrissey is poised to win four precincts going away: three, five, six, and eight. He is currently polling slightly ahead in district seven.

There are a plethora of viable candidates running, which divides the anti-Morrissey vote. The theory of one or more dropping out to stop Morrissey is remote. All any of the other candidates need to do is hold “Fightin’ Joe” to four districts on November 8, finish second, and best him in a runoff. So why would anyone abandon their race?

Neither scenario is likely, and Morrissey could even win a December run-off, as his voters are very motivated. Joe wins. Get over it.

U.S. Senate, House and Va. District 93 Special coming soon. 

Breaking News: 2016 LIVE RNC Coverage from The Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland

Breaking News: 2016 LIVE RNC Coverage from The Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland from Monday, July 18 to Friday, July 22 – Special Expanded Coverage Daily from 6 AM – 12 Noon only on The John Fredericks Show!

CLICK HERE for the expanded coverage live broadcast!

 

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All roads to the White House in 2016 run through Virginia and The John Fredericks Radio Show! We’re trucking the truth and bringing you Presidential candidates every week on Virginia’s top morning radio show! So get your big boy pants on and fasten your seat belts!

No gibberish and no nonsense – Just common sense!

#JFRS – TRUCKING THE TRUTH – MONDAY TO FRIDAY 6:00 – 12 Noon

CLICK HERE for the expanded coverage live broadcast!

Join The Conversation: 888-480-JOHN (5646) – Common Sense for the Commonwealth!

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John Fredericks is a Virginia based radio talk show host heard Monday-Friday 6-10 AM on WHKT AM 1650-Hampton Roads, WNTW AM 820-Richmond, WBRG Super Talk 1050, 106.7 FM and 104.5 FM – Lynchburg, Lexington, Danville and Farmville. Online: https://www.johnfredericksradio.com

ALERT: Va. Gov. Terry McAuliffe on #JFRS Friday at 8:35 a.m.

We’ll ask The Mackster about the new deals he’s cooking up to bring more jobs to Virginia, his recent trip to Cuba, his 2016 General Assembly agenda, guns…and national politics!

What will Gov. McAuliffe’s Virginia legacy be? Find out Friday…on The John Fredericks Show!

Can You Say: “Clinton Vs. Trump 2016?”

terry

Friday January 22 at 8:35 a.m.

This is Must Listen Radio In Virginia!

All roads to the White House in 2016 run through Virginia and The John Fredericks Radio Show! We’re trucking the truth and bringing you Presidential candidates every week on Virginia’s top morning radio show! So get your big boy pants on and fasten your seat belts!

No gibberish and no nonsense – Just common sense!

#JFRS – TRUCKING THE TRUTH – MONDAY TO FRIDAY 6:00 – 10 A.M.

Join The Conversation: 888-480-JOHN (5646)

Hampton Roads: WHKT AM 1650
Richmond: WNTW AM 820
Lynchburg: WBRG SuperTalk AM 1050
Danville: WBRG 106.7 FM
Franklin: 105.1 FM
Live Streaming Here

John Fredericks is a Virginia based radio talk show host heard Monday-Friday 6-10 AM on WHKT AM 1650-Hampton Roads, WNTW AM 820-Richmond, WBRG Super Talk 1050, 106.7 FM and 104.5 FM – Lynchburg, Lexington, Danville and Farmville. Online: https://www.johnfredericksradio.com

 

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RPV Brass Doubles Down on Anti-Trump Primary Vote Scheme, Pushes Secret “Talking Points” to Va. Unit Chairs To Combat Media Firestorm

RPV Brass Doubles Down on Anti-Trump Primary Vote Scheme, Pushes Secret “Talking Points” to Va. Unit Chairs To Combat Media Firestorm

THE TRUTH WILL SET YOU FREE. OR, JUST SPIN IT. 

The latter appears to be the new mantra of the Republican Party of Virginia’s top brass: When in doubt, spin your way out!

Under fire for slipping in a “Statement of Affiliation” pledge requirement at the voting booth to repel unsuspecting Independents, disaffected and newly registered voters from participating in Virginia’s March 1 Super Tuesday primary election, the Republican Party of Virginia’s ruling elite countered by sending out talking points to it’s unit chairs.

If logic fails, spin it like a top.

The Statement of Affiliation, gleefully approved by Governor Terry McAuliffe’s (D-VA) Democratic controlled State Board of Election representatives, mandates that those who choose a Republican ballot on Presidential primary day must first sign an intrusive document stating official affiliation to the Republican Party.

Failure to comply at the registration table would cause the unsuspecting voter to be denied a ballot, stripping away their right to vote.

The General Assembly has failed to pass registration by political party in Virginia.

Talking points or not, the subterfuge appears to be a blatant attempt by the RPV to disenfranchise core Trump supporters, many of whom are Independents or new to the process and may not be comfortable signing papers stating their party affiliation.  These are the very voters the Republican Party of Virginia desperately needs to win in the fall.

Virginia Republicans have lost six state-wide races in a row and two consecutive Presidential races.

Rather than create spin mechanisms, The RPV should abandon the pledge gimmick.

Let Virginians vote in peace and in private. Potentially turning unsuspecting registered voters away at the polls on election day is unconscionable.

MOULTON: “PULL THE PLUG ON THIS DISASTER”

Here is what longtime Virginia conservative activist leader Russ Moulton sent to his GOP leadership colleagues today:

“I understand the statement of affiliation wording has been changed by SBE/McAuliffe, and won’t be the one voted on by SCC in September.

I understand that SBE is refusing to allow us access to the executed statement forms, so we won’t get this gold mine of Republican voter contact data we were promised.  We will have to fight for it under FOIA or other legal approaches that may or may not be successful.

UH, IT’S ILLEGAL GUYS, DID YOU MISS THAT DETAIL?

RNC Rule 16 d 2 says RPV must have published the statement of affiliation qualification in a newspaper of general circulation 90-days before the Primary.  RPV didn’t do so, and so if RPV proceeds with the statement requirement with SBE, it is violating RNC rules and VA’s delegation is subject to a credentials challenge.

I understand why many voted for this statement initially.  At one time, I supported them too.  But I have come to believe with deeper understanding they are a mistake.

Establishment Republicans have recently hurt our brand-idea so badly, we have many in our base disgusted with Republicans.

After all the recent disappointments with Republicans on the Hill for voting for more deficit spending, funding of executive amnesty, funding for ObamaCare, funding of planned parenthood, etc … — how many of you heard folks say, “I am no longer a Republican” or “I’ve left the Republican Party”?

Even the Rev. Franklin Graham recently made such statements publicly.

If we are going to get our party back on the right track, we need these disaffected folks back participating now, not turned away by a statement.  We need them to get our Party back.

Primaries are taxpayer-funded evolutions, not party processes.  As a result, people instinctively believe they have a taxpayer right to participate in Virginia primaries.  We are trying to push a rope uphill, trying to convince voters they should accept they have no right to participate in our primary nominations unless they are Republicans – only to hurt our eventual nominee with outraged, turned-away voters.

If we wanted a statement of affiliation and to have only Republicans vote, we shouldn’t have picked a primary in the first place.  If we pick an open primary, then don’t expect to keep out non-Republicans.

In practice, we relinquish our right of free association the minute we adopt a state-run primary.

We keep allowing the establishment to force us into primaries – and then we try to dress up the pig with statements of affiliation to make them less objectionable.

We should not support statements of affiliation designed to fix primaries — because they don’t.

And on top of this, now we hear the SBE won’t go with the wording adopted by SCC, won’t give us access to the statement voter contact data, and our statement is in violation of RNC rules.

It’s time to pull the plug on this disaster.” – Russ Moulton

Below is the full text of the letter we obtained from a Virginia GOP unit chair last night, who shared it on the condition of anonymity. Name and time/date stamp has been redacted to comply with the request.

FULL TEXT RPV LETTER: Dear Unit Chairs,

Recently there has been a lot of media attention focused on our Party regarding the Statement of Affiliation. Certain media members have been spreading disinformation regarding the Statement and we feel it is important to arm our members with some important facts.

Below are examples of the disinformation being spread with points rebutting the assertions.

*Accusation: The Statement of Affiliation is targeted against Donald Trump.

*Response:

*When the Statement of Affiliation was being formulated back in September RPV reached out to all of the major presidential campaigns to seek input on our proposed form. The following presidential campaigns or their surrogates responded by saying the Statement was fine by them: Carly Fiorina, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush.

*Donald Trump’s campaign was sent an email on September the 8th outlining the Statement of Affiliation. A copy of the email has been attached to this email. The email address that the draft statement was sent to is the email address of Trump’s deputy political director. As proof, the email address was used when the Trump campaign threatened to pull out of the CNBC debate. Link here.  For 3 months there was no response from the Trump campaign. On December 9th, the RPV received a letter from the Trump campaign asking several questions regarding the Statement of Affiliation. Due to the State Board of Elections formulating implementation of the Statement we were unable to fully respond in writing until December 19th. However, the Trump campaign received a phone call the same day from RPV outlining most of the likely responses.
*For reasons unknown to our Party at this time, Donald Trump has decided that this an attack against his campaign. Let me be very clear, the Statement of Affiliation is not designed to favor or hurt any candidate whatsoever. The purpose of the Statement is to build our Party and prevent Democrats from voting in the March 1st Republican Presidential Primary.  Had the Trump campaign responded prior to the meeting, our Party would have alerted our members to their feedback at the September State Central meeting when the Statement of Affiliation was voted on.

*Accusation: RPV has been opposed to the Trump campaign from the start

*Response:

*The Republican Party of Virginia has treated all candidates equally throughout the nomination process. Our Party and our Chairman have highlighted all Republican presidential candidates when they have visited the Commonwealth through social media. In addition, our Party always attempts to send a representative when a candidate visits to encourage future visits and highlight the importance of Virginia in the upcoming presidential election. This courtesy has included Donald Trump’s campaign, our Chairman has attended a Trump rally, as well highlighting his visits in our Commonwealth, just like all of the other candidates.

*When it came time to qualify for the ballot this year, the Republican Party of Virginia developed a new pre-check procedure to ensure ballot access was simple and transparent in comparison to past efforts. All campaigns were invited to participate and Donald Trump’s campaign was the first to take part in the effort. Once the Trump campaign completed the process, RPV highlighted their efforts in an email and press release. RPV did this for every single campaign who passed our pre-check procedure.

*In addition, our Party offered to sell a copy of the voter file to all campaigns so each campaign could verify signatures. The Trump campaign was the only campaign who took the Party up on our offer. RPV took this unprecedented action to ensure all campaigns had the equal opportunity to make the ballot.  More recently, the RNC has given the Trump campaign access to the same voter file the RPV has access to for free. Link here.

*The Republican Party of Virginia also invited every single presidential campaign to our annual fundraiser at the RPV Advance and this included Donald Trump’s campaign. In short, the Republican Party of Virginia has treated all candidates equally and this includes Donald Trump.

*Accusation: The Statement of Affiliation is designed to disenfranchise independent voters

*Response:

*The Statement of Affiliation is designed to prevent Democrats from voting in our process and to serve as a party building tool for our Party. Our goal is to ensure Republican voters choose the Republican nominee for president.  It is not a pledge or an oath and does not bind voters to do anything other than state they are Republicans. The statement simply reads, “My signature below indicates that I am a Republican.” It is not targeted at Republican leaning independents or Tea Party members.

*A similar statement was required previously, in the 2000 Republican Presidential Primary. In 2000, voters had to sign a pledge stating they would not participate in another Party’s primary. Despite a very stringent pledge, over 664,000 voters chose to vote in our Party’s primary that year. The turnout in that election still holds the record for participation in a Republican primary.

*The fact is the Democrats are terrified that our new Statement will give us an opportunity to develop a large state-wide voter list for future Party building. The liberal, Democrat blog “Blue Virginia” has urged the State Board of Elections to squash our Statement to prevent our Party from gaining an electoral advantage.

Thank you all for your time on this issue. I hope you all have a Happy New Year — John Findlay, Executive Director, Republican Party of Virginia

Rob Wittman, Running for Va. Gov., to Guest Host The John Fredericks Talk Radio Show

Guests Include U.S. Reps. Scott Rigell, Randy Forbes, Bob Goodlatte and VA Delegate Rich Anderson

Portsmouth, Virginia, December 29, 2014 — It’s The Rob Wittman Show. Again.

Congressman Rob Wittman (R-VA), a GOP candidate for Virginia Governor in 2017, will guest host The John Fredericks Morning Radio Show for the fifth time on Wednesday, December 30, 2015 from 6:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

rob wittman

Wittman last commanded the microphone as a guest host for Fredericks in January, 2015.

The John Fredericks Morning Show is heard from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. weekdays on WHKT AM 1650 in Hampton Roads, WNTW AM 820 in Richmond and WBRG Super Talk AM 1050, 106.7 FM and 105.1 FM in Lynchburg and Lexington. The show streams digitally on http://tunein.com/radio/WHKT-1650-s29343

Fredericks, approaching his fifth year of broadcasting in Virginia, calls his show “Common Sense for The Commonwealth” and features top-tier interviews and analysis with statewide and national political officials on a daily basis. Nearly all of the 2016 GOP Presidential candidates have appeared on his show. Although a conservative, Fredericks is popular with listeners across the ideological spectrum.

“John is unique in his ability as a radio talk show host to attract the nation’s top political movers and shakers on both sides of the aisle, and has gained a national reputation for broadcast fairness, insightful analysis and hard-hitting reporting,” said Henry Hoot, Regional Vice President for Chesapeake Broadcasting Company, Fredericks’ flagship. “His political predictions are uncanny and his insightful analysis is nationally recognized. John has amassed a great audience and has gained significant influence in Virginia.”

U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman was first elected to Congress in December, 2007.

He was re-elected for his fourth full term in November 2014.

Wittman won his first campaign for public office in 1986 when he was elected to the Montross Town Council, where he served for 10 years, four of them as Mayor. In 1995, he was elected to the Westmoreland County Board of Supervisors and became its Chairman in 2003.

In 2005 Wittman won a seat to the Virginia House of Delegates, where he served until he won his 2007 Congressional race.

Wittman serves on the House Armed Services Committee and the Committee on Natural Resources, where he’s earned a reputation as a defense expert and a champion of the Chesapeake Bay.

Guests scheduled to appear on the show with Rep. Wittman on Wednesday include: U.S. Rep. Rob Rigell, (R-VA), U.S. Rep. Randy Forbes (R-VA), U.S. House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) and Del. Richard Andersen (R-Prince William).

“Each opportunity to talk with John Fredericks is a thoughtful discussion on the issues that matter. He’s raised the bar for conservative radio and I’m excited to talk with his audience on the issues facing our nation and our Commonwealth,” Wittman said.

Other elected officials who have guest hosted The John Fredericks Show include U.S. Rep. Scott Rigell (R-VA), U.S. Rep. Randy Forbes (R-VA) Delegate David Ramadan (R-Loudoun), State Senator John Miller (D-Newport News), State Senator Chap Peterson (D-Fairfax), Delegate Scott Taylor (R-Va.Beach) and Delegate Glenn Davis (R-Va. Beach).

For further information contact The John Fredericks Show at 757-692-1710 or email John@jfradioshow.com
All roads to the White House in 2016 run through Virginia and The John Fredericks Radio Show! We’re trucking the truth and bringing you Presidential candidates every week on Virginia’s top morning radio show! So get your big boy pants on and fasten your seat belts!

No gibberish and no nonsense – Just common sense!

#JFRS – TRUCKING THE TRUTH – MONDAY TO FRIDAY 6:00 – 10 A.M.

Join The Conversation: 888-480-JOHN (5646)

Hampton Roads: WHKT AM 1650
Richmond: WNTW AM 820
Lynchburg: WBRG SuperTalk AM 1050
Danville: WBRG 106.7 FM
Franklin: 105.1 FM
Live Streaming Here

The John Fredericks Show is Common Sense for the Commonwealth. It is the only morning political news-talk show focused on local issues that impact the daily lives of Virginia residents. The John Fredericks Show broadcasts live weekdays from 6-10am on WHKT AM 1650 – Hampton Roads, WNTW AM 820 – Richmond – Central Virginia
and WBZS 102.5 FM – Roanoke and the New River Valley

 

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Morning Line Odds on Virginia GOP Governor Race – 2017

Morning Line Odds on Virginia GOP Governor Race – 2017

These are not predictions (those will come much later) but merely my analysis on where the races stand right now.

As you know, I’m always right…

I made two key assumptions:

• The nomination will be decided via a convention, not a primary
• Ken Cuccinelli will not run for governor. If he does, the odds change dramatically – in his favor.

 

Ed Gillespie 5:2

Money, time, organization and big name endorsements make Ed Gillespie the morning line chalk going in.

The Republican establishment views him as their best hope to win a statewide election after five losses in a row. As a result, they employed “shock and awe” during the days leading up to the RPV Advance, releasing a massive who’s-who list of big name endorsements in Virginia.

Republican House and Senate leadership want to “clear the field” by making his nomination appear inevitable and scaring other competitors away.

That juggernaut strategy failed miserably this weekend, because at least four other candidates emerged as serious contenders at the Advance in Hot Springs. Not exactly what the Gillespie brain trust had in mind.

But Gillespie has inherent strengths that bode well in his nomination quest.

First, he’s been around the block once, and I believe he really liked the convention process. He’s a tireless worker, and he can raise a boatload of cash.

Second, I’m convinced he truly believes he’s the knight on the white horse that can deliver Virginia Republicans out of their statewide wilderness. Where his maiden campaign for U.S. Senate was somewhat quixotic and cautious, his race for governor will be rooted in his vision to reshape the state party in his image. I envision a bolder platform of reform and a much better command of the issues.

Third, his wife Cathy is a significant asset in an 18-month long nominating convention slog. She brings warmth and charm where the candidate can often convey the distant aloofness of a lifelong lobbyist. And she’s at his side.

Gillespie’s forces failed to clear the field. Now they have to figure out how to win – or come close to winning — on the first convention ballot.

Multiple ballots put Gillespie at risk with 15,000 raucous delegates at a long drawn out Richmond convention extending well into the night.

 

Rob Wittman 4:1

U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA/1) is the most underestimated political figure in Virginia. As chairman of the House sub-committee for military readiness, Wittman is a key leader in the nation’s war and troop deployment effort. He holds a doctorate degree, he’s served in the general assembly and he won a hotly contested convention to get to Washington.

Most recently, Wittman has broke with his leadership on key votes in order to brandish his conservative credentials with the grassroots activists who will decide the GOP convention nominees.

Much to the chagrin of Gillespie, Wittman and his team deftly stole the show, hijacked the mainstream media headlines and then captured the cocktail party buzz by adroitly engineering a “soft launch” of his gubernatorial campaign.

Brilliant.

Let me be blunt: Wittman is scary smart.

His pathway to victory is cogent and concise: be everybody’s second choice, recruit enough delegates to survive the first ballot, make a great speech on the floor, deny Gillespie a first ballot victory and watch his ascension in succeeding ballots. As the night drags on, he’ll look more and more like the guy who can beat Ralph Northam.

A solid 4:1 and a great bet if you want to throw out the chalk.

 

Pete Snyder 5:1

Fairfax State Sen. Chap Peterson (D) says Pete Snyder is the most dangerous Republican in Virginia.

He may be right.

Snyder’s entrance in the race throws the whole thing wide open. He’s the wildcard the party leaders don’t want. Sure they love Snyder for his ability to raise money for the RPV and for his tireless campaign service, but they’d rather just pat him on the head than have him challenge their anointed one for governor.

In a time when disaffected Republicans distrust their entrenched political leadership and yearn for something else, Snyder is a dangerous candidate because he bridges multiple gaps.

His conservative credentials are unquestioned, yet he’s acceptable to the Bill Bolling- Chamber of Commerce wing of the party.

He’s an outsider, an entrepreneur and a proven job creator, very popular with the grass roots, yet the Party brass sees him as one of their own.

Who else in this field can woo the stuffy bank boardroom crowd while also firing up throngs of young college kids at the local beer hall?

It’s a potent dynamic that, quite frankly, no one else has. He’s a marketing genius.

He can raise money too. Lots of it. And he’s been to this rodeo before. I doubt he’ll make the same mistakes twice. That makes him formidable.

If you have any doubt about the potency of a Snyder for governor candidacy, see Matt Blevins, Kentucky.

Count him out at your own risk.

No, he’s not running for Lt. governor.

 

Corey Stewart 6:1

All this guy does is win landslide elections as a conservative in Northern Virginia.

Fresh off another impressive re-election victory as Chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors (BOS), Corey Stewart is a force to be reckoned with.

He carried majority-minority precincts in his county with eye-popping 57 percent margins, and he’s now the only Republican mayor or BOS chairman in Northern Virginia.

Like Snyder, he went through the convention battle for LG in 2013, finishing third.

Like Snyder and Gillespie, albeit to a lesser degree, he can raise enough money to compete.

Stewart was just named Donald J. Trump Virginia campaign chairman. This gives him juice with all the Trump enthusiasts who will remember him for stepping up for their guy.

If Trump becomes President he’ll likely endorse Stewart and campaign for him in Virginia – contested nominating battle or not.

Mr. Trump is very loyal.

A good bet at 6:1 for that alone.

 

Tom Garrett 10:1

Charismatic, energetic, fearless and focused, State Sen. Tom Garrett (R-Goochland) is a dark horse not to be dismissed. Plus, he has the best sense of humor of the five candidates – which he’ll need to stay competitive in this race.

Garrett is an unabashed conservative who can go toe to toe with the party establishment and not bat an eye. He’s tough as nails.

He’ll rely on a burgeoning grass roots volunteer network to stave off first ballot elimination at the convention. He’s the one candidate who could repeat E.W. Jackson’s 2013 magic and catch lightening in a bottle. With 15,000 surly convention delegates going late into the night in the civic armpit of the world (Richmond Convention Center, better known locally as “the big dump”), anything can happen.

 

Note: If Ken Cuccinelli runs for governor, he would be the favorite at 2:1. Whether he’s electable or not is moot. This is a convention. And he’s Ken Cuccinelli. Enough said.

John Fredericks is a Virginia based radio talk show host heard Monday-Friday 6-10 AM on WHKT AM 1650-Hampton Roads, WNTW AM 820-Richmond, WBRG Super Talk 1050, 106.7 FM and 104.5 FM – Lynchburg, Lexington, Danville and Farmville. Online: https://www.johnfredericksradio.com

 

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Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz on #JFRS

Special Election Edition – EXCLUSIVE SENATOR @TEDCRUZ LIVE on @JFRadioShow

Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz Scheduled to Appear on the John Fredericks Show on Thursday, December 17 at 12:05 PM.

ted cruz

 

Republican Presidential Candidate Senator Ted Cruz is scheduled to appear on a Special Edition of the John Fredericks Show on Thursday, December 17 at 12:05 PM EST.

 

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), fresh off his Las Vegas debate dust up with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), will outline his plans for ISIS, Syria, Russia, future Islamist and Muslim immigration, Speaker Paul Ryan’s new omnibus spending bill, the senate cloture rule, TPP, NSA surveillance, taxes and job growth on a special live edition of the The John Fredericks Radio Show. Its Cruz and Fredericks. One on One. Don’t miss it!

All roads to the White House in 2016 run through Virginia and The John Fredericks Radio Show! We’re trucking the truth and bringing you Presidential candidates every week on Virginia’s top morning radio show! So get your big boy pants on and fasten your seat belts! No gibberish and no nonsense – Just common sense!

 

#JFRS – TRUCKING THE TRUTH – MONDAY TO FRIDAY 6:00 – 10 A.M.
Join The Conversation: 888-480-JOHN (5646)

 

The John Fredericks Show can be heard Monday through Friday 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. in Hampton Roads on WHKT AM 1650,  Richmond on WNTW AM 820 Lynchburg-Roanoke on Super Talk 1050 & Streaming live: http://tunein.com/radio/WHKT-1650-s29343/

 

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JFRS Virginia General Election Predictions 2015

JFRS Election Day Predictions

Virginia Democrats Poised to Snatch Defeat… From the Jaws of Victory

McAuliffe Closes Campaign on Guns and Tolls –Big Money Interlopers Hijack Dems’ Winning Message of Jobs, Education and Infrastructure

Mackster takes the gun…and leaves the cannoli!

My legendary, world renowned and highly coveted political predictions are based on the following criteria: total hearsay, unconfirmed rumors, conspiracy theories, pure innuendo, personal insight, moles who feed me off the record scoops, my high-voltage tin foil hat wired into the mother ship, cell phone polls with no scientific relevance, pure instinct…and my secret sauce.

It all adds up to a nearly flawless track record! I’m right a whopping 99 percent of the time.

Rather than waste hundreds of words on all the races I got right, I’ll start with the only two I got wrong: I missed Amanda Chase’s primary upset this year in SD 11 and E.W. Jackson’s ’13 LG convention romp. Didn’t see those coming!

So here we go:

Four weeks ago Virginia Democrats had the state senate all but won.

The Godfather, Senate Leader Dick Saslaw (D-Fairfax) was on easy street, needing only one senate seat to flip for control. They had three races in serious play and just needed to win two of them in traditionally Democratic districts.

The Democratic senate caucus was banking on a revitalized Democratic Party of Virginia that rebranded itself as VA-DEMS, hired top executive talent in political director Brian Zuzenak and communications guru Stephen Carter and gained a huge financial advantage with cross funding from Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s Common Good Virginia PAC.

McAuliffe’s PAC pumped in $250,000 per month to fund an 80 person paid full-time ground game staff targeted in six senate districts.

Their token opposition consisted of a near bankrupt Republican Party of Virginia with a handful of contractors and a few employees in Richmond.

It was a miss-match of Godzilla like proportions.

The only thing the GOP had going for them at the state level was Senate Majority Leader Tommy Norment’s two top caucus political honchos: Jeff Ryer and Michael Young. They matched wits with Zuzenek and Carter, going toe to toe on strategy. But they were outgunned and out manned. Even General Patton can’t win without boots on the ground.

Then along came Michael Bloomberg’s Everytown for Gun Safety PAC. They dumped $2.2 million on a TV ad campaign starring Andy Parker, the father of the Roanoke television newscaster who’s daughter was gunned down in cold blood during a morning broadcast in August.

They focused their millions on two key senate races: Districts 10 and 29, both must-wins for the Democrats.

But this changed the Dem’s closing message from jobs, education and roads to guns.

Then Andy Parker threatened a sitting state senator, Bill Stanley (R-Franklin) on social media with violent retribution for his pro-gun stance — and all hell broke loose. Stanley called the Capitol police. McAuliffe told him on a radio show to “man up.” Outcome: message lost for Democrats.

That was bad enough. Then Republicans dared the governor to disavow a crazy $17.00 round trip toll scheme on I-66 two weeks ago – to fund bike paths. McAuliffe, under fire, doubled down in lieu of abandoning the hair-brained idea and attempted to explain it – rather than deep six it. Explaining something in the final days of a campaign is never a good thing. The Mackster knows better.

So its guns and tolls for the Democrats…their closing message somehow hi-jacked by environmental and guns legislation extremists in swing districts at the final hour.

The end result: Roses for Republicans.

State Senate – Republicans gain one seat – 22-18

Key State Senate Races

Senate District 6

Lynwood Lewis (D) – 4 over Richard Ottinger (R)

“Landslide” Lewis wins again, albeit this time by more than 11 votes. Ottinger has run a spirited race, and he’s closed the gap, but the Eastern Shore will stick with Lewis one more time. A huge blowout by Delegate Rob Bloxam (R) helps narrow the margin from eight to four.

Senate District 7

Frank Wagner (R) -8 over Gary McCollum (D)

I knew McCollum’s goose was cooked when my wife Anne – The Fräulein – saw a McCollum sponsored negative TV ad showing a picture of a young, smiling windblown Frank Wagner on the beach –and said, “Look honey there’s Frank on TV…awe, he was so cute back then, wasn’t he just adorable!”

I’ve heard Wagner called a lot of things in my day…but adorable…?!

Senate District 8

Bill DeSteph (R) -19 over Dave Belote (D)

Note to Belote: Don’t run against DeSteph in an off-year election. The guy is a one-man juggernaut.

Senate District 10

Glenn Sturtevant (R) -3 over Dan Gecker (D)

The Democrats never, ever should have lost this race.

But they’re doomed on Tuesday.

The anti gun message is a disaster for Gecker, an otherwise sober and moderate candidate. The bulk of the district is in Chesterfield and Powatan counties.

Residents in Chesterfield and Powhatan don’t own a gun. They own guns. Lots of them.

Plus there’s a four-person sheriff’s race in Powatan. Mike Young taught me that sheriff races in rural Virginia counties are like the world series of politics: everybody turns out. And those voters are not going for Gecker and Bloomberg. They’re voting for Sturtevant.

Senator John Watkins (R), who is retiring, said he’d be the last Republican to win this seat. He’s right. The Democrats are going to lose it.

Senate District 13

Dick Black (R) – 10 over Jill McCabe (D)

Never bet against an incumbent who left his blood on a rice field in Vietnam fighting against communist aggression.

Senate District 21

John Edwards (D) – 5 over Nancy Dye (R)

This is by far the best race the Democrats ran this cycle. The Republicans have a great candidate in Dr. Nancy Dye, and with another Democrat in the race acting as spoiler (Roanoke Commonwealth Attorney Don Caldwell) this looked like a real possible gain for the GOP.

But Caldwell fizzled, Edwards re-energized late, and he’s still well known and liked in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.

Dye’s campaign was overly cautious, and her decision to come out against the pipeline didn’t help her pro jobs message. You can’t play not to lose when down by 10.

Dye will be back, and will be tougher the next go around when Edwards will likely retire.

Senate District 29

Hal Parrish (R) – 1.5 over Jeremy McPike (D)

Hal Parrish, mayor of Manassas, has run the greatest state senate race in a Democratic district in Virginia history. That plus a big bounce from Prince William county vote getter Corey Stewart, running for re-election for Chairman of the Board of Supervisors seals the deal. Do you know that President Obama won this district with 63 percent? Stewart and Parish. Parish and Stewart.

House of Delegates – Republicans gain 2 seats – 69-31

The I-66 toll is an unmitigated catastrophe for minority House leader David Toscano (D-Charlottesville). Democrats should have gained three to five seats. Instead they’ll lose two. Unbelievable.

GOP House Gains/Losses

House District 2

Mark Dudenhefer (R) over Joshua King (D) – GOP pickup

Can’t beat the Colonel twice.

District 34

Craig Parisot (R) over Kathleen Murphy (D) – GOP Pickup

I like Kathleen Murphy. But I live in Chesapeake so I can’t vote for her. Plus I’m nowhere near I-66, but what about those mid-town tunnel tolls? I decided I hate all tolls. So do NOVA’s. Parisot wins.

House District 86

Danny Vargas (R) over Jennifer Boysko – Wash

Vargas is a big-time candidate who’ll win a big time race.

House District 87

John Bell (D) over Chuong Nguyen (R) – Democratic Pickup

Three times a charm for Bell. David, we miss you already.

House District 93

Lara Overy (R) over Monty Mason (D) – GOP Pickup

My upset special. Chicks rule the Peninsula.

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RAND READIES FOR LATE DRIVE

Republican Presidential Candidate Senator Rand Paul Scheduled to Appear on the John Fredericks Show on Friday, October 16 at 8:05 AM

Senator Rand Paul will outline his plans on Syria, Russia, the debt ceiling, cloture, TPP, the EX-IM Bank, taxes and job growth on the The John Fredericks Radio Show. Don’t miss it! 

All roads to the White House in 2016 run through Virginia and The John Fredericks Radio Show! We’re trucking the truth and bringing you Presidential candidates every week on Virginia’s top morning radio show! So get your big boy pants on and fasten your seat belts!

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Rand Paul

 

Republican Presidential COP Candidate Rand Paul Scheduled to Appear on the John Fredericks Show on Friday, October 16 at 8:05 AM.

 

About the John Fredericks Show

The John Fredericks Show is Common Sense for the Commonwealth. It is the only morning political news-talk show focused on local issues that impact the daily lives of Virginia residents. The John Fredericks Show broadcasts live weekdays from 6-10am on WHKT AM 1650 – Hampton Roads, WNTW AM 820 – Richmond – Central Virginia
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